Our Correspondent
New Delhi, July 13
Climate change poses serious risks to marine ecosystems and the fisheries they support, says the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report.
By the end of the century, across both emissions scenarios, the seven countries with the largest fish catch which between them accounted for 48 percent of global marine capture in 2022 -China, India, Indonesia, Peru, the Russian Federation, VietNam and the United States of America- will likely experience losses in exploitable fish biomass, the report says.
The report titled “Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project” presents projections for 2100 exploitable fish biomass under different climate scenarios, for all countries and territories.
The report presents projections from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), an international network of researchers working towards understanding the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world.
The report recommends improving the accuracy of climate impact ensemble modelling for marine ecosystems and fisheries, including building capacity through the provision of tools and training to enhance capabilities for meeting future policy needs. Among these is the inclusion of aquaculture in ecosystem models, and a combined analysis of land-sea modelling outputs for fully integrated assessments.
The report says the magnitude of losses is much larger under the high emissions scenario than under the low emissions scenario by the end of the century.
“Losses in exploitable fish biomass are visible by mid-century and further grow by the end of the century under the high emissions scenario.”
“Countries showing the strongest decline under high emissions – and thus which have the greatest benefit associated with lower emissions by the end of the century – are China (31 per cent and 9 per cent loss under the high and low emissions scenarios respectively), Peru (37 per cent and 8 per cent loss under the high and low emission scenarios respectively) and the United States of America (29 per cent and 10 per cent loss under the high and low emissions scenarios respectively),” the report reads.
Asia
As aquatic foods and the activities relating to them are of key importance for food security, economies and livelihoods in Asia including parts of the Middle East, these countries and territories of Asia are the world’s main fisheries and aquaculture producers, together accounting for about 70 percent of global aquatic food production in 2022.
Asia has the largest fishing fleet, and about 85 percent of the world’s fishers and fish-farmers were located in this region in 2022. In some Asian nations, such as Cambodia, Bangladesh and Indonesia, fish and other aquatic foods contribute at least half of the total intake of animal protein.
“Any future change in exploitable fish biomass may therefore threaten the wealth and wellbeing of people living in Asia,” the report adds.
It says most Asian countries and territories (60 percent) show significant declines in exploitable fish biomass under both scenarios by mid-century.
“Under the high emissions scenario, declines of up to 22 percent are projected by mid-century, and declines of up to 39 percent are projected by the end of the century. Even worse trends are projected for Iraq (63 percent) and Kuwait (69 percent).”
“The outlook for this broad region is of particular concern for countries and territories that are heavily reliant on fish for protein and where population growth could pose risks to per capita fish supply in the absence of adaptation strategies. These combined trends further throw into question the future ability of marine ecosystems to meet local demand for aquatic foods.”
Latin America and the Caribbean, North America
The Americas (Latin America and the Caribbean, North America) are the world’s second-largest fisheries and aquaculture producer after Asia, with the United States of America being the sixth country worldwide in terms of marine fisheries production in 2022. However, most fishers and fish-farmers are concentrated in Latin America and the Caribbean, where small-scale fisheries are deeply linked to the history and culture of communities and are a valuable source of income and food.
The report says countries and territories of North and South America show wide variation in projected changes in exploitable fish biomass. By mid-century, geographical patterns and trends are similar under the low emissions and high emissions scenarios, with slightly stronger decreases under the high emissions scenario. “Even by mid-century, declines of over 10 percent are projected for some Small Island Developing States in the region (e.g. Saint Lucia, Barbados, Dominica), all highly reliant on fisheries. By the end of the century, geographical patterns remain similar under the low emissions scenario, but changes are strongly exacerbated under the high emissions scenario,” the report reads.
Under high emissions, end-of-century losses are greater than 20 percent across the ten most affected countries including Ecuador and Peru (losses of 39-37 percent +/- 19-20 percent), the latter contributes nearly six percent of global capture production of aquatic animals. “While small increases or no change are
projected in a small set of areas within waters of national jurisdiction (e.g. south vs. north Brazil, east vs. west vs. northern United States of America and Canada), these are associated with high levels of spatial variability which are balanced out by declines at the country level. “
The United States of America
The United States of America, which is today one of the world’s largest producers and importers of aquatic animal products ranks seventh in terms of projected end-of-century losses of exploitable fish biomass under high emissions, which could lead to a reduction in fish supply. “Likewise, there are strong declines in exploitable fish biomass for other countries and territories in Central and South America, such as Guatemala, El Salvado, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia. This poses additional challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, where coastal populations are projected to increase by 42 percent and 48 percent by 2050,” the report added.
