CHR News Desk, New Delhi
The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) has released a declassified report revealing that over the next decade, climate and societal changes will likely strain global health resources and increase the risk of significant health emergencies.
The report, authored by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), emphasizes the critical role of climate and societal shifts in placing pressure on global health resources and escalating the likelihood of major health crises in the coming years.
It also highlights concerns regarding the erosion of global health governance due to factors such as government disregard for international health norms and adversary interference, alongside uncertainties surrounding the future of the World Health Organization (WHO).
Additionally, the report warns that while initiatives developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and emerging technological advances may help address some global health shortfalls, they could also pose unintended risks.
Dated December 2023, the report underscores the challenges posed by climate change, strained health infrastructure, and weakening global health governance, predicting dire consequences such as shifting disease patterns, exposure to extreme weather events, and food insecurity worldwide.
The report notes that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has worsened existing vulnerabilities in global health systems, resulting in pandemic fatigue, contested narratives, and medical misinformation. These challenges, compounded by competing global priorities and shifting donor attention and funding, heighten the risk of regression in health security gains made since 2021.
“Pandemic fatigue and medical misinformation may further weaken health-seeking behaviors, such as vaccination, and result in significant health emergencies. Although some child immunization rates have begun to rebound, they still fall short of pre-pandemic coverage particularly in low-income countries,” reads the report.
The impact of recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic diseases, including avian influenza, cholera, dengue, Ebola, monkeypox, and polio, has further stretched global and national disease detection and response systems, as highlighted in the report.
Furthermore, the report stresses the urgent need for concerted international efforts to address climate-related health risks, warning of potential devastating consequences, including increased fatalities and adverse health outcomes, if climate change is not mitigated effectively.
In conclusion, the report calls for immediate action to strengthen global health governance, enhance health system capacity, and tackle the interconnected challenges posed by climate change and societal dynamics. It emphasizes the crucial role of international cooperation in addressing the looming threats to global health security.
The report also highlights the impact of recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic diseases, including avian influenza, cholera, dengue, Ebola, monkeypox, and polio, which have stretched global and national disease detection and response systems.
Furthermore, the report emphasizes the need for concerted international efforts to address climate-related health risks. It warns that failure to mitigate climate change could lead to devastating consequences, including increased fatalities, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health effects.
In conclusion, the report calls for urgent action to strengthen global health governance, enhance health system capacity, and address the interconnected challenges posed by climate change and societal dynamics. It underscores the importance of international cooperation in addressing the looming threats to global health security.
The report is based on a comprehensive assessment of exogenous factors, national and international health system capacity, and governance issues, with a focus on opportunities and risks of emerging technological advances in addressing existing health shortfalls.
The declassified report marks a significant step towards enhancing public understanding of global health security challenges and informing policy deliberations on national and international levels.
The UN estimated that by 2050, climate change could increase the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition by 20 percent because of reduced crop yields, poor nutrient quality, and water and sanitation disruptions. Heatwaves alone could lead to nearly 525 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by midcentury.
One billion children live in the 33 countries that the UN classified as at “extremely high-risk” to the impacts of climate change, with undernutrition accounting for the majority of projected climate-driven child deaths.
The UN estimated that by 2030, the direct annual global health costs of climate change would be between $2 to $4 billion and include additional deaths, the majority of which will occur in Africa and be driven by malaria, malnutrition, diarrhea, and health stress. The World Bank projected that an additional 44 million people would be driven into poverty from health-related climate impacts by 2030.
Climate-related disease outbreaks are growing because of changes in pathogen characteristics and seasonality and climate hazards that bring people and pathogens closer together; nearly 60 percent of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change.
About 4 billion people are currently at risk of contracting mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue and malaria—and researchers expect this number to increase to 4.5 billion by 2050 and 5 billion by 2080 because of climate change.
The UN estimated that by 2050, climate change could increase the risk of food insecurity and malnutrition by 20 percent because of reduced crop yields, poor nutrient quality, and water and sanitation disruptions. Heatwaves alone could lead to nearly 525 million additional people experiencing moderate-to-severe food insecurity by midcentury.
One billion children live in the 33 countries that the UN classified as at “extremely high-risk” to the impacts of climate change, with undernutrition accounting for the majority of projected climate-driven child deaths.
ENDS
