All major political actors, including leaders of the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party(PDP), Bharatiya Janata Party/BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), J&K National Panthers Party [JKNPP], J&K Apni Party (JKAPP), Peoples Conference (PC), and other smaller groups, have begun public interactions through rallies and meetings.Nearly two days after Mehbooba Mufti, chief of PDP, arrived in Chenab Valley to pay a visit, Omar Abdullah, vice president of NC, began his visit to the region.
The BJP has already informed its party cadres that the Assembly elections will not be delayed further.These are being held next year prior to the annual Amarnath Yatra, which usually begins in the last week June each year but was postponed this year due to the pandemic.
Sources close to senior leaders from NC, BJP and PDP, Congress, and others indicate that none believe that they could win the majority in the new Assembly.> “Whatever senior leaders of these parties may say in public or in the media, the truth is that none of them believe to get an absolute majority by itself,” said a former bureaucrat thought to be close to NC.The Assembly will likely have 90 seats after the new delimitation.There were 87 seats in the previous Assembly, but four of them belonged to Ladakh, which is a separate UT.The Jammu region had 36 and the Valley had 47 seats.Sources suggest that at least 6 seats will be added to Jammu region, and 2 new Assembly constituencies will be carved from the existing ones in Valley.
Additionally, J&K would have Assembly constituencies reserved for tribals, scheduled castinge, etc.This is likely to create a new political map for the UT.The PDP had 28 seats in the last state Assembly.BJP had 25, NC 15, and the INC had 12.Both the NC and the PDP have lost significant portions of their public support in the Jammu region and the Valley.The BJP is also not as strong as it was in 2014s Assembly elections
Sources within the partys central leadership claim that this reality has been addressed by the BJPs top leadership at Delhi.> “Dont be surprised if many of the BJP leaders who were fielded back in 2014 find themselves out of the hustings.
A source within the central leadership of the party said that “there are genuine emerging faces in local leadership and they have decided to field majority them in 2022 Assembly elections”.Apart from the idea of a major overhaul of the list of candidates BJPs trump card Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is still the most popular leader of the Jammu region, is also the idea.
Despite growing disillusionment with the partys leadership, the persona of Modi might be difficult to dismantle for BJP rivals.The NC and PDP will likely face challenges in the Valley from other political parties, such as the PC led by Sajad Gani Loone and the Apni Party led by Syed Altaf Bukhari.
Although the PC and the Apni Parties might not be able to create the same ground-level cadre as the NC or the PDP, there is no doubt that they can disrupt some of the previously foregone ground realities, and thus play a major spoilsport for the NC or the PDP.Many reasons have already led to the PDP losing most of its support.It was once the undisputed winner in south Kashmir districts Anantnag, Kulgam and Shopian.> “No longer today.
Mehbooba Mufti has undoubtedly gained some ground due to her busy political activities in recent weeks, but it is still far from what the party could aim for in 2014,” said a former leader of the PDP who left the party following the death of Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, its patron.Since the abrogation article 370, the NC has maintained a strong anti-BJP and anti–centre position.
Yet, its most loyal supporters dont believe that the party can win enough seats to take power in 2022.Ghulam Azad and G.A.are at the heart of the INCs internal leadership feud.Mir, the partys state president.
Mir is supported by senior party leaders, including Rahul Gandhi.Azad however has a greater reach and support on the ground in J&K.
If Azad remains disenchanted with central Congress leadership, as is he at present, the Congress will be the worst victim in J&K Assembly election.Azad could leave the party and form his own dissident Congress party to fight the 2022 Assembly elections.
It is clear that Azad is respected in the Chenab Valley region, which includes the districts of Ramban and Doda, Kishtwar, Reasi.If the 2022 elections result in a fractured mandate, his departure or disenchantment from the Congress would create a parallel force that could be the King maker.
These realities suggest that there is a strong chance that the 2022 Assembly elections results will force major political parties to resign from their top pedestal and seek support from smaller parties in order to form a political government.J&K seems to have lost the days of unrivalled kingship.
